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Prediction for CME (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-17T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26068/-1
CME Note: Halo CME seen primarily to the southwest in association with two separate M5.0+ class solar flares and a strong eruption from Active Region 3633 (S25W73). The eruption is proceeded by another eruption which is impressive in itself; the main eruption starting around 23:18Z as seen in SDO 131 imagery is characterized by a very large scale brightening near Active Region 3363 with rising plasma along the southeastern portion of the active region, widely and quickly moving and opening magnetic field lines seen in SDO 193/171, and a strong post-eruptive arcade signature characterized by intense, regional brightening along the southwest limb in SDO 131. Associated with SEP events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. Arrival signature: A jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 440 km/s, accompanied by a jump in B total to just under 12 nT, an increase in density and rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-20T16:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-20T06:30Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-07-18T01:45Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1638
Longitude (deg): 32W
Latitude (deg): 14S
Half-angular width (deg): 30

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Alister McHardy

Lead Time: 59.78 hour(s)
Difference: 9.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-07-18T04:20Z

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